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French to English: Eurozone outlook General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Finance (general)
Source text - French Après une année 2017 très dynamique, la croissance a ralenti plus fortement que prévu en 2018 (de 2,5 % à 1,8 %). Au T3-18 et au T4-18, le PIB a augmen-té de seulement 0,2 % en séquentiel (1,6 % et 1,2 % en GA). La mauvaise performance des exportations est la principale cause de ce ralentissement, qui a en outre été amplifié par les difficultés du secteur auto-mobile en Allemagne et la contraction de l’activité en Italie sur fonds d’incertitudes politiques. Les indica-teurs avancés ne laissent entrevoir qu’un rebond mo-deste de la croissance au T1-19. Nous révisons en conséquence notre prévision annuelle en 2019, de 1,4 % à 1,2 %. En 2020, la croissance sera stable à 1,1 %.
Alors que les incertitudes perdureront sur le plan international, nous n’anticipons pas de rebond notable du commerce mondial en 2019-2020. Les exportations devraient néanmoins continuer de croître à un rythme proche de 3%. La demande intérieure restera le princi-pal moteur de la croissance, mais décélérera sur l’horizon de prévision. La consommation des ménages sera résiliente, tirée par les créations d’emplois et les hausses de salaires. Mais la croissance de l’investissement se modérera en 2019-2020.
L’incertitude grandissante entourant la longévité du cycle en zone euro risque en effet d’inciter les agents privés à repousser certaines de leurs dépenses. En revanche, la consommation publique accélérera en 2019, conséquence de la dégradation des soldes bud-gétaires dans les principales économies de l’union monétaire.
Les hausses de salaires continuent de tirer les coûts salariaux unitaires. L’inflation sous-jacente de-vrait par conséquent accélérer sur notre horizon de prévision. Dans ce contexte, la BCE a confirmé en décembre la fin de ses achats nets d’actifs. Cela dit, au vu de la dégradation de l’environnement conjoncturel en zone euro, la première hausse de taux n’aura pas lieu avant la fin de l’année et ne concernera certaine-ment que le taux de la facilité de dépôt. Par ailleurs, la BCE prolongera très certainement la maturité des TLTRO en vue d’éviter un resserrement trop fort des conditions financières.
Les risques entourant notre scénario sont nom-breux, au premier titre desquels un Brexit désordonné et/ou une intensification de préoccupations sur la soutenabilité de la dette italienne. Par ailleurs, un nouveau ralentissement de la demande chinoise pè-serait sur la croissance via le canal des exportations. De même, l’instauration de tarifs douaniers par les Etats-Unis sur les importations de véhicules fragilise-rait significativement le secteur manufacturier, notam-ment en Allemagne.
Translation - English After a very strong year in 2017, growth slowed more strongly than expected in 2018 (from 2.5% to 1.8%). In Q3-18 and Q4-18, GDP increased by just 0.2% sequentially (1.6% and 1.2% year-on-year). The main reason for this slowdown was weak exports, but it was amplified by difficulties in Germany's automotive sector and the contraction in activity in Italy due to political uncertainty. The leading indicators suggest we can expect just a modest rebound in growth in Q1-19. We are therefore revising down our full-year forecast for 2019 from 1.4% to 1.2%. In 2020, we expect growth to remain stable at 1.1%.
With uncertainties likely to persist in the international arena, we do not expect to see any notable re-bound in global trade in 2019-2020. Exports should nevertheless continue to grow by roughly 3%. Internal demand should continue to be the main growth driver, but it should decelerate over the forecast horizon. Household consumption should remain resilient, underpinned by job creation and wage increases. How-ever, investment growth is likely to moderate in 2019-2020. The growing uncertainty around the longevity of the Eurozone cycle could prompt private agents to defer some of their expenditure. However, public sector consumption should accelerate in 2019 due to a deterioration in budget balances in the main Eurozone economies.
Wage increases are likely to continue driving up unitary wage costs. As a result, core inflation is likely to accelerate over our forecast horizon. Against this backdrop, the ECB confirmed in December it had reached the end of its net asset purchases. That said, given the deterioration in the economic environment in the Eurozone, we are not likely to see a first interest rate increase before the end of the year, and it will undoubtedly only concern the deposit facility rate. Moreover, the ECB is very likely to extend the maturity of its TLTRO with a view to avoiding an overly sharp tightening of financial conditions.
There are several risks around our scenario, chief among them being a disorderly Brexit and/or an intensification of concerns around the sustainability of Italy's debt. A fresh slowdown in demand from China would weigh on growth via exports. Similarly, customs tariffs by the US on imports of vehicles would significantly weaken the manufacturing sector, in Germany in particular.
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Master's degree - Dublin City University
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Years of experience: 26. Registered at ProZ.com: Sep 2014. Became a member: Jun 2019.
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French to English (University College Cork) French to English (Dublin City University)
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Bio
Freelance financial translator/proofreader - French to English.
10 years' experience as a freelance translator and over 10 years’ experience in-house in Paris.
Use of Trados Studio 2022 and Phrase.
Specialised in finance, accounting, auditing, annual reports, URDs, KIID, general legal documents, corporate communications.
Experience in post editing, transcription and data labelling.
Masters in Translations Studies from Dublin City University
Bachelor's Degree in French and Italian from University College Cork
Keywords: French to English translation, finance, accounting, financial markets, business communications, fund prospectuses, annual reports, registration documents
Member since Jun '19
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